Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?
🗂 Part of event: NHL Hart Memorial Trophy →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 10% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 10% right now.
Despite offseason buzz around Nick Suzuki's leadership and milestone chases, the 13% Yes odds reflect a deep skepticism that he can leap into the elite tier required to win the Hart Trophy, given his career scoring trajectory and the Canadiens' non-contender status.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, every Hart Trophy winner has been a top-5 scorer or a dominant goaltender/defenseman, and Montreal has not produced a Hart winner since 1978, making Suzuki a historical long shot.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines highlighting Suzuki's leadership and potential milestone chase (11Alive.com, Jul 22) have kept a floor of optimism, but the overwhelming No vote (87%) shows the market sees him as a fringe candidate.
- • The hiring of coach Luke Lalonde and a new team direction (thesickpodcast.com, Jul 21; Markerzone.com, Jul 20) may boost Suzuki's role, but the Canadiens' lack of recent individual hardware keeps odds low.
- • A playoff highlight from last season (ESPN, Jul 20) reminds bettors of Suzuki's clutch ability, but that alone does not shift the consensus that he is not a top-tier MVP contender.
The case for YES
- • Suzuki is the Canadiens' captain and top center, and if he posts a career-high 90+ points while Montreal surprisingly contends for a playoff spot, the 'most valuable player' narrative could propel him to Hart votes.
- • The Hart Trophy has historically rewarded players who carry weak teams—Suzuki's central role in a rebuilding Montreal might fit that story if the team overachieves.
- • A new offensive system under coach Lalonde could unlock Suzuki's scoring ceiling, especially if he develops chemistry with a rising star like Lane Hudson.
The case for NO
- • Suzuki has never finished in the top 20 in NHL scoring, and the Hart Trophy virtually requires a top-5 scoring finish or a historic season from a non-forward—a bar he has not approached.
- • The Canadiens are not projected to be a division winner, and Hart winners almost always come from teams that finish in the top half of the league standings.
- • Perennial MVP candidates like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews dominate the Hart race, making it extremely difficult for a player like Suzuki to even be a finalist.
What to watch
- • Start of the 2026-27 regular season (October 2026) – a hot start by Suzuki would boost Yes odds, while a slow start would solidify the No case.
- • Mid-season All-Star Game selection (January 2027) – if Suzuki is named an All-Star, it would signal a top-tier season and likely push odds above 20%.
- • Release of preseason Hart odds from major sportsbooks (August 2026) – if Suzuki's implied probability rises relative to Kalshi's 13%, the market may adjust upward.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Nick Suzuki wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2026-27 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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