Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?
🗂 Part of event: NHL Hart Memorial Trophy →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 29% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 29% right now.
McDavid's Hart odds are depressed by team uncertainty and potential voter fatigue, despite his individual brilliance, as trade rumors and a tough division race cloud his path to a fourth MVP.
📊 Base rate: Since the 2000-01 season, the Hart Trophy has been awarded to a previous winner in only 7 of 24 seasons (29%), suggesting repeat winners are not the norm.
What's driving it
- • Trade speculation (Markerzone, Jul 23) creates uncertainty about McDavid's commitment to the Oilers, potentially distracting from team performance and his Hart candidacy.
- • The Oilers' division title hopes (NHL Fan Central, Jul 24) provide a positive team narrative that could boost McDavid's case if they succeed.
- • The rivalry with Vegas (Vegas Hockey Knight, Jul 24) highlights a tough path to a top seed, which could hurt McDavid's chances if the Oilers fall short.
The case for YES
- • McDavid is the most dominant player in the league and has won the Hart three times; if the Oilers make the playoffs and he leads scoring, he remains a top candidate.
- • The schedule suggests the Oilers can end their division title drought (NHL Fan Central, Jul 24), giving McDavid a strong team-success narrative that voters often reward.
- • Contract rumors are dismissed as unlikely (The Hockey News, Jul 24), so McDavid can focus on playing without distraction.
The case for NO
- • Trade speculation (Markerzone, Jul 23) indicates potential team turmoil or a future move, which could hurt the Oilers' performance and McDavid's individual stats.
- • Voter fatigue is a real factor: McDavid has won three Harts already, and voters may prefer a fresh narrative, such as a player on a surprising team.
- • The Oilers' rivalry with Vegas (Vegas Hockey Knight, Jul 24) suggests a tough division race, making it harder for McDavid to secure a top seed and the Hart.
What to watch
- • NHL season opener (October 2026) – if McDavid posts multiple points early, odds likely increase.
- • NHL trade deadline (March 2027) – if McDavid is traded, odds drop sharply; if he stays, odds may rise.
- • Mid-season Hart Trophy rankings (January 2027) – if McDavid is not among the top three, odds fall.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Connor McDavid wins the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy in the 2026-27 NHL season, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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