Top US Netflix Show on Jul 27, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Top US Netflix Show this week? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The market heavily doubts that 'Worst Neighbor Ever' will still be #1 on July 27, despite its early-July peak, because the show's buzz appears to be fading and new content typically overtakes quickly.
📊 Base rate: Shows that reach #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 list typically hold the spot for 1–3 weeks, with about 20% lasting longer than two weeks, but no specific historical rate is provided in the headlines.
What's driving it
- • The show was ranked #1 on Netflix in early July (PureWow, Jul 10), but the market gives only 1% chance it retains that position on July 27, implying traders expect rapid decline.
- • A July 16 review from Abstract AF! called the season 'Abstract AF!', which may signal negative critical reception reducing sustained viewership.
- • The resolution date is 5 days after the market date (July 22), giving little time for a sustained #1 run; most shows peak within the first week.
The case for YES
- • The show garnered strong initial viewership and media coverage from multiple outlets (Yahoo, CNET, Realtor.com) indicating broad appeal that could sustain through the week.
- • True crime series often have binge-worthy marathons, and viewers might continue watching into late July.
- • No major competitor has been announced as a clear #1 threat for the week of July 27 based on available headlines.
The case for NO
- • By July 16, reviews were already appearing that were less enthusiastic (Abstract AF!), suggesting the show's peak has passed.
- • Netflix's Top 10 is highly dynamic; a show that was #1 two weeks prior is unlikely to still be #1 after two weeks, as new releases constantly debut.
- • The market consensus of 99% No indicates informed traders believe other content will top the chart on that date.
What to watch
- • No specific upcoming events are mentioned in the provided headlines, but any new high-profile Netflix series premiering in the week of July 20-27 would increase the probability of No.
- • If Netflix releases its daily Top 10 list showing Worst Neighbor Ever dropping from #1 before July 27, that would further shift odds toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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