US real GDP growth in 2029?

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: 2.1% to 2.5% at about a 16% chance — unlikely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market assigns the highest probability to US real GDP growth in 2029 falling between 2.1% and 2.5% (16%), closely followed by the 2.6% to 3.0% range (15%). Lower growth scenarios, including 1.6% to 2.0% (9%) and 0.0% or below (8%), have significant combined odds, while higher growth outcomes above 4% also carry notable but smaller probabilities. Overall, the implied distribution suggests a central expectation of moderate growth, with substantial uncertainty spanning both lower and higher possibilities.