What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?
🗂 Part of event: What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 43% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 43% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the average number of measles cases annually from 2025 to 2028 is at least 4000, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗