US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: July 31 at about a 26% chance.
The field is extremely narrow with only two date candidates, yet the leading option (July 31) has just 22% probability, indicating deep uncertainty; the largest recent shift is a 2-point decline in that probability, likely driven by the July 15 Pentagon strike wave (Crypto Briefing, Jul 15) which suggests continued hostilities reduce the chance of an early blockade end.
What's driving it
- • The July 31 candidate dropped 2 points in the last 24 hours, reflecting market reaction to the Pentagon's second strike wave on July 15 (Crypto Briefing, Jul 15) that signals escalation rather than resolution.
- • The July 24 candidate sits at 0%, likely because the US reimposed the blockade on July 14 (Al Jazeera, Jul 14) and Trump renewed the blockade on July 13 (The Guardian, Jul 13), making a near-term end highly improbable.
- • The June 15 memorandum (Reuters, Jun 15) suggests a formal diplomatic framework exists, but the ongoing strikes (Washington Post, Jul 9) and the proposed toll on Hormuz (CNBC, Jul 13) indicate the conflict is far from over, keeping the July 31 probability low.
Why the front-runners lead
- • July 31 leads because it is the only date with any non-zero probability, and the 22% figure likely reflects a speculative bet that the month-long escalation could culminate in a ceasefire by month-end, consistent with the June memorandum (Reuters, Jun 15) as a possible basis for timing.
- • The market appears to assign a small chance that the Trump administration announces an end to the blockade as a face-saving move after the proposed toll on cargo (CNBC, Jul 13) fails to generate enough revenue or diplomatic leverage.
- • No other candidate has attracted bids, so July 31's lead is largely a default position for the earliest plausible exit date given the recent strike cycles.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open because the market only lists two specific dates, leaving 78% implied probability that the blockade ends on a date not yet offered, such as August 7 or later, meaning a new candidate could easily overtake July 31.
- • A new date candidate could emerge if a concrete diplomatic schedule is announced, for example following the June memorandum (Reuters, Jun 15) or a surprise ceasefire proposal; the current 0% for July 24 shows that the market sees no chance of a very early end.
- • Continued escalation, as seen in the July 15 strike wave (Crypto Briefing, Jul 15), could push the most likely date further into August or beyond, making July 31 less probable and potentially zeroing it out if a new later date appears.
What to watch
- • Any official US or Iranian statement on a ceasefire date, such as a follow-up to the June memorandum (Reuters, Jun 15), would likely shift probability sharply toward the specified date and away from July 31.
- • A new round of major strikes or a blockade expansion (e.g., after the July 15 Pentagon wave) would further reduce the probability of July 31 and increase the chance of a later date, possibly causing a new candidate to appear.
- • The proposed 20% toll on Hormuz cargo (CNBC, Jul 13) could act as a catalyst if implemented, potentially increasing diplomatic pressure to end the blockade on a specific negotiated date, which would reshape the field.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from InsightX’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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