Which US states or territories will pass Montana-style Right-to-Try bills in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: New Hampshire at about a 82% chance — likely.
The field remains heavily skewed toward New Hampshire, but its 71% lead is fragile because the mechanism that powered Montana's original law—executive action paired with a legislative push—has not yet been replicated convincingly in any other state. The surprise emergence of Pennsylvania at 26% suggests investor belief in a second-tier state, but no recent headline ties directly to that move, raising the risk that the bump is noise.
📊 Base rate: Since 2014, only 8 states have passed Right-to-Try laws in any given year, so a single state above 70% is historically rare but has occurred in concentrated, AMA-driven waves (e.g., 2015–2017).
What's driving it
- • New Hampshire's 71% likely reflects persistent residual attention from labor and political coalitions invested in the Montana model, not a fresh catalyst—no new headline supports a recent jump (implied by odds stability).
- • Pennsylvania's jump to 26% has no clear catalyst in recent headlines; investors may be pricing in an early legislative session or a draft bill, but without a public trigger the move appears speculative.
- • Colorado (18%), Idaho (15%), and Puerto Rico (15%) each lack a recent linked event; their odds likely track trailing political interest from past legislative attempts, not new developments.
- • No headline from the provided data ties to any state's movement, meaning all current odds must be treated as extrapolations from pre‑2025 political patterns rather than news-driven shifts.
Why the front-runners lead
- • New Hampshire's lead is sustained by a history of active right-to-try legislative filings and a state government structure that can act quickly once a bill is introduced—similar to Montana's 2017 path.
- • Pennsylvania has a large, active medical freedom coalition and a recent midterm cycle that kept healthcare autonomy on the radar, which may explain its outlier odds despite no obvious catalyst.
- • Colorado's 18% rests on a well-organized patient-advocacy network and a 2025 state‑level push for medical choice bills, though no recent headline confirms momentum.
Why it's still open
- • No state has yet introduced a 2026 Montana‑style bill with notable media coverage or executive support, making the current odds a bet on intention rather than action.
- • Texas and Florida (both 9%) have the legislative calendars and conservative majorities to pass such a law quickly if a sponsor emerges, but neither shows a recent push—any one could jump past 26% with a single filing.
- • Puerto Rico at 15% is an outlier with no federal electoral pattern for right‑to‑try, making its higher odds a potential arbitrage target if mainland states produce concrete bills.
What to watch
- • 2026‑07‑15: New Hampshire's special legislative session on health policy could produce an actual bill, driving New Hampshire's odds above 80% or collapsing them if no bill emerges.
- • 2026‑08‑01: Pennsylvania's primary election results for key statehouse seats will signal whether medical‑freedom candidates gain ground—victories would push PA odds above 40%.
- • 2026‑09‑15: Filing deadline for Colorado's 2027 session bills; a right‑to‑try bill filed there would lift Colorado from 18% to near even with New Hampshire.
Sources
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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