Average annual rise in sea level in the next report prepared by the IPCC
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Between 3.21 mm to 3.7 mm at about a 43% chance.
The field is moderately concentrated, with the leading bracket at 43%—far from a lock—and the biggest recent shift was the December 2025 Washington Post study rebutting a Trump report and showing U.S. sea-level rise is accelerating, which likely narrowed the gap between the leading 3.21–3.7 mm bracket and the higher ones.
What's driving it
- • The Washington Post study (Dec 2025) showing U.S. sea-level rise is accelerating directly supports the 3.71–4.2 mm and >4.21 mm brackets, increasing their odds from lower levels (18% each) (The Washington Post, Dec 17 2025).
- • The World Meteorological Organization report (Mar 2026) stating Earth's climate is swinging increasingly out of balance reinforces the mechanism for faster sea-level rise, bolstering the higher-end outcomes (WMO, Mar 23 2026).
- • The Nature study (Oct 2025) on impacts of sea-level rise across Asia and the Pacific highlights regional vulnerabilities but does not directly shift the global mean, leaving the lower brackets unchanged (Scientific Reports, Oct 13 2025).
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 3.21–3.7 mm bracket (43%) is the default expectation because it matches the current satellite-observed trend of ~3.3 mm/yr, and no headline has provided a strong reason to abandon it.
- • The 3.71–4.2 mm bracket (18%) benefits from the WaPo acceleration study (Dec 2025) and the WMO imbalance statement (Mar 2026), which together suggest the trend is climbing toward the upper end of that range.
- • The >4.21 mm bracket (18%) is supported by worst-case scenario models; the WaPo and WMO headlines lend credibility to a faster-than-expected rise, though it remains a tail risk.
Why it's still open
- • The leading bracket holds only 43% of the probability, meaning a majority of the distribution is elsewhere, and a single new data release could shift the plurality to a different candidate.
- • The 3.2 mm or less bracket (14%) could gain if future observations show a slowdown—for example, from unexpected ocean heat uptake or ice-sheet stabilization—but no recent headline points in that direction.
- • The 3.71–4.2 mm bracket (18%) has room to overtake the leader if additional acceleration evidence emerges, such as from the next IPCC assessment or new satellite altimetry results.
What to watch
- • Release of the next IPCC assessment report outline or schedule (likely 2026–2027): a draft indicating higher confidence in acceleration would push odds toward the 3.71–4.2 mm and >4.21 mm brackets.
- • Publication of the 2026 State of the Climate report by NOAA (expected late 2026): if it shows a global mean sea-level rise above 3.7 mm/yr, the leading bracket would lose share to the higher ones.
- • New findings on Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics (e.g., Thwaites Glacier collapse, possibly 2026–2027): a major destabilization would sharply increase the >4.21 mm bracket at the expense of all lower ones.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
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