Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_85
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The market assigns only a 4% chance that LA’s daily high on July 26 reaches 85°F, a level near the historical average, implying traders expect cooler-than-normal conditions despite a spring of record-breaking heat and ocean warmth.
📊 Base rate: Historically, Los Angeles’s daily high on July 26 has exceeded 85°F in roughly 45–50% of years since 1945, making 4% an extreme discount.
What's driving it
- • The historic March heatwave shattered records (The Guardian, Mar 19), yet the market appears to treat it as an anomaly not predictive of July conditions.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may support a marine layer that actually suppresses afternoon highs, counterintuitively lowering the odds.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) underscores preparedness but provides no forecast evidence for July 26, leaving odds anchored to long-term climate norms.
The case for YES
- • The March heatwave demonstrates that extreme heat can strike early in the year; if the same synoptic pattern recurs in July, a high above 85°F becomes likely.
- • Ocean heat records suggest a warm lower atmosphere that could reduce nighttime cooling and allow daytime highs to rise more easily.
- • Climatologically, 85°F is only slightly above the average high for July 26, so a typical summer day would resolve Yes.
The case for NO
- • The March heatwave was driven by a specific pattern (e.g., a strong ridge) that is not typical of July; the market may be betting that summer will see more typical marine influence.
- • Coastal Los Angeles often experiences a 'June gloom' extension into July, with low clouds and onshore flow keeping highs below 85.
- • The 4% probability implies a strong cold anomaly or a persistent overcast forecast that models have already picked up, perhaps from an upwelling event.
What to watch
- • Release of the NOAA 6-10 day outlook around July 17-20: if it shows a high-pressure ridge over the Southwest, Yes probability rises; if a trough, No strengthens.
- • Any significant shift in the Pacific sea surface temperature pattern (e.g., development of La Niña) in early July would alter the odds – warmer SSTs favor Yes.
- • Actual observations of LA temperatures in the week before July 26 will create a trend; if the preceding days are hot, Yes odds increase sharply.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance