Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
Despite record-breaking heat earlier in 2026, the market assigns a low probability to LA's July 26 high being exactly 81°F, reflecting the inherent rarity of any specific temperature and the expectation of a warmer-than-average summer.
📊 Base rate: Historically, the probability of Los Angeles experiencing an exact high of 81°F on a given July day is low, around 5-10%, making the current odds consistent with historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • Historic March heatwave shattered records across the Southwest (The Guardian, Mar 19), suggesting an unusually hot summer that makes an exact moderate temperature less likely.
- • Ocean temperatures off California repeatedly broke heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), indicating sustained warmth that could keep July highs above the historical average.
- • No recent headlines directly forecast July 26 weather, so odds are driven by base rates for exact temperatures and seasonal expectations.
The case for YES
- • A cooler day with marine layer influence could cap the high at exactly 81°F, a modest temperature for July.
- • The unprecedented March heatwave demonstrates the region's volatility, but a swing back to average could land on 81.
- • Historical July data shows that exact temperatures near the average occur with non-negligible frequency.
The case for NO
- • July 26 is deep summer; LA's typical high is well above 81°F, making an exact match unlikely due to natural variability.
- • The ocean heat records and March heatwave point to a warmer-than-average summer, reducing the chance of a moderate high.
- • Probability of any specific integer temperature is very low; the market's 7% aligns with that baseline.
What to watch
- • Release of NOAA's July outlook (around June): if predicts above-normal temperatures, No becomes more likely; if below-normal, Yes gets a boost.
- • Short-term forecast in the days before July 26: extreme heat prediction strengthens No, while a mild forecast could increase Yes probability.
- • Actual observed high on July 26 will obviously resolve the market.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance