Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 40% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 40% right now.
The market is pricing a 40% chance of Los Angeles hitting exactly 78°F on July 26, 2026, a specific temperature well below the historical average high of 84°F, implying that traders see a non-trivial possibility of a cooler-than-normal day despite early-year heatwaves and record ocean warmth.
📊 Base rate: Historically, the probability of Los Angeles recording a daily high temperature of exactly 78°F on any given July day is approximately 2-3% based on 30-year climate normals, making the current 40% odds a significant deviation from the base rate.
What's driving it
- • The historic March heatwave that shattered records across the US West (The Guardian, Mar 19) and the record ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) have raised awareness of unusual warmth, but their direct impact on a specific July day is uncertain.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) signals increased institutional focus on heat, but it does not provide a near-term forecast for July 26.
- • No clear recent catalyst has moved the odds since May; the current 40% likely reflects a blend of lingering heatwave narratives and long-range model uncertainty.
The case for YES
- • The early-year heat extremes and persistent ocean heat may shift the overall temperature distribution, making exact values like 78°F more probable if the summer ends up moderately warm rather than extremely hot.
- • If the summer is cooler than average due to marine layer or other factors, 78°F could be a common high, and the market’s 40% may capture that scenario.
- • The lack of strong El Niño or La Niña signals leaves room for a neutral summer where 78°F is a plausible outcome.
The case for NO
- • The historical average high for July 26 in Los Angeles is about 84°F, so 78°F is below normal; a warmer-than-average summer, suggested by the March heatwave and ocean heat, would make such a low high less likely.
- • Exact temperature contracts are inherently low-probability events; the base rate of 2-3% suggests the 40% odds are overpriced unless there is strong evidence for a specific cool pattern.
- • Seasonal forecasts from NOAA and other agencies, while not cited in headlines, typically predict above-normal temperatures for Southern California in July, which would push highs above 78°F.
What to watch
- • Release of the NOAA July temperature outlook around July 1, 2026: a hotter-than-normal forecast would lower the Yes probability (if exact), while a cooler forecast would raise it.
- • Any heatwave watch or warning issued for the Los Angeles area in the week before July 26: a heatwave would push highs well above 78°F, reducing Yes odds.
- • Daily weather model runs starting around July 20: consistent forecasts of highs near 78°F would increase Yes odds; forecasts of 85°F+ would decrease them.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance