Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.
Despite a historic March heatwave and record ocean temperatures off California, the market gives only a 12% chance that LAX will hit 80°F on July 26 — reflecting the airport's persistent marine-layer cooling and a lack of near-term July-specific heat forecasts.
📊 Base rate: At Los Angeles International Airport, the daily high temperature on July 26 has reached 80°F or higher in only about 15% of years since 1944 (using NWS data).
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines directly forecast July 26 conditions; the March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and February record highs (The Guardian, Feb 27) are too early to significantly shift July temperature odds.
- • Record ocean heat off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could increase summer warmth, but traders appear to discount its effect on the specific date, possibly because marine-layer persistence is more dominant.
- • The market has settled near the historical base rate without major movement, suggesting no strong new information has emerged to challenge the baseline.
The case for YES
- • The March heatwave demonstrated that extreme heat can occur outside typical months, potentially increasing the probability of an unseasonably hot July day.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could reduce the marine layer, allowing the LAX reading to climb above 80°F, which has happened in about one in seven recent years.
- • Weather forecasts issued in the week before July 26 could shift odds upward if a heat dome is projected over Southern California.
The case for NO
- • Los Angeles International Airport is cooled by onshore flow and a persistent marine layer in July; the historical probability of exceeding 80°F on this date is only about 15%.
- • The March and February heatwaves (The Guardian, Mar 19 & Feb 27) were anomalous events in spring and do not reliably predict July conditions.
- • No recent forecast models indicate a significant heat event for Southern California in late July 2026, keeping the default expectation at a typical 75–78°F high.
What to watch
- • Late-July long-range ensemble forecasts (around July 15–20) — if they show a strong ridge over the Southwest, odds would rise; if they show troughing or marine layer persistence, odds would fall.
- • July 26 itself — the actual high temperature resolves the contract; no earlier catalyst will definitively move odds except official National Weather Service forecasts.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance