Phoenix Daily Temperature High — contract UHPHX_072526_116
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite a record-breaking heat wave on July 25, Phoenix's daily high fell short of the 116°F threshold, leaving the 'Yes' probability at just 2%.
What's driving it
- • The July 25 record high (FOX 10 Phoenix, Jul 25) was widely reported but did not include a 116°F reading, leading the market to heavily favor No.
- • Forecasts of 115°F (AZ Family, Jul 5) set a ceiling that the actual temperature likely did not exceed, reinforcing the No probability.
- • The extreme heat watch issued in June (azcentral.com, Jun 22) warned of temperatures past 110°F, but not 116°F, suggesting the threshold was always a stretch.
The case for YES
- • If the official high is later revised upward to 116°F or above, the contract would resolve Yes.
- • The record heat and extreme warnings (AZ Family, Jul 24) indicate that conditions were exceptionally hot, making a 116°F reading plausible.
The case for NO
- • The record high set on July 25 (FOX 10 Phoenix, Jul 25) was likely below 116°F, as no headline explicitly mentions reaching that mark.
- • Historical climate data shows Phoenix has only reached 116°F a few times, making a 2% probability consistent with the base rate.
- • The mention of relief on the way (azcentral.com, Jul 25) suggests the heat wave peaked without breaking the 116°F barrier.
What to watch
- • Official NWS temperature data for July 25, expected within a day, will confirm the high and likely lock in the No outcome.
- • If a new record high is announced that matches or exceeds 116°F, the odds could spike to Yes, but this is unlikely given current reports.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance