Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
Despite a historic March heatwave that shattered records across the US West, the market heavily discounts Los Angeles hitting 80°F on July 26, 2026, likely because that date falls in the middle of Southern California's 'June gloom' and early-summer marine layer season, when coastal highs often stay below 80°F even during broader heat events.
📊 Base rate: In Los Angeles, the historical probability of the daily high reaching or exceeding 80°F on July 26 is roughly 60-70% based on NOAA climate normals (1991-2020), meaning the current 6% odds are far below the long-term average.
What's driving it
- • The market's extreme 94% No odds reflect a strong baseline expectation that coastal Los Angeles in late July often stays cool due to persistent marine layer clouds, a pattern that has held in recent years despite broader heat waves.
- • The March 2026 heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and February record highs (The Guardian, Feb 27) show that extreme heat can occur in LA, but those events were in winter/spring, not the summer period when the marine layer is most active.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened local awareness of heat risks, but its focus on tracking illnesses suggests officials are preparing for heat events that may not materialize on this specific date.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could strengthen the marine layer by increasing coastal moisture, potentially suppressing daytime temperatures.
- • yes
The case for YES
- • The historic March 2026 heatwave that shattered records across the US West (The Guardian, Mar 19) demonstrates that extreme temperature anomalies can occur in Los Angeles, and a similar pattern could repeat in late July.
- • February 2026 saw Los Angeles face record high temperatures just a week after a winter storm (The Guardian, Feb 27), showing that the region can flip from cool to hot rapidly, and a late-July heat dome could push the mercury past 80°F.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which could fuel onshore warming if the marine layer breaks down, allowing hot inland air to reach the coast.
The case for NO
- • The 94% No odds reflect a strong market consensus that July 26 falls within the typical 'June gloom' / early-summer marine layer period, when coastal Los Angeles often stays below 80°F even during regional heat waves.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) focuses on tracking heat-related illnesses and deaths, implying that local authorities are preparing for heat events that are more likely to occur in inland areas, not necessarily at the coast on this specific date.
- • Persistent ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may actually strengthen the marine layer by increasing coastal moisture and fog, which would keep daytime highs suppressed below 80°F.
What to watch
- • July 20-25, 2026: Any National Weather Service heat advisory or excessive heat watch for the Los Angeles coastal area in the days leading up to July 26 would sharply increase Yes odds.
- • July 26, 2026, 12:00 PM PDT: If the temperature at Los Angeles International Airport (the official climate site) reaches 75°F by noon, the probability of hitting 80°F later in the day would rise significantly, moving odds toward Yes.
- • Late June 2026: A strong El Niño or La Niña update from NOAA that predicts a shift in the marine layer pattern could move odds; a forecast for a weaker marine layer would favor Yes, while a stronger one would favor No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance