Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
Despite a record-warm spring, the market assigns only a 3% chance to Los Angeles reaching 81°F on July 26 — implying a strong local cooling factor (e.g., marine layer or a specific forecast) is overwhelming seasonal norms.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and record ocean warmth (LA Times, Apr 16) set a warm background, but the 3% Yes odds indicate traders are focused on a specific short-term forecast for July 26 that predicts a high well below 81.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (LA Daily News, May 28) was published two months ago, but no recent headlines signal an imminent heat event for this date, suggesting the market sees no unusual heat risk.
The case for YES
- • The record-warm ocean off California (LA Times, Apr 16) could fuel coastal temperatures enough to exceed 81°F despite typical marine-layer cooling.
- • Los Angeles has shown it can shatter records in March (USA Today, Mar 17); a similar unexpected surge in July would push the high above the threshold.
- • The new Heat Dashboard (LA Daily News, May 28) indicates authorities are preparing for heat-related illnesses, implying a non-zero risk of high temperatures on any given summer day.
The case for NO
- • The market’s 97% No price reflects confidence that today’s actual high will fall short of 81°F, likely due to a persistent marine layer or a specific forecast not captured in the provided headlines.
- • The extreme March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) was an isolated spring event; summer coastal patterns in Los Angeles often keep highs in the mid-70s, consistent with the low odds.
- • No recent headlines report a heat advisory or warning for this date, suggesting no extraordinary heat event is anticipated.
What to watch
- • The release of the official daily high temperature for Los Angeles later today will resolve the contract; a reading of 81°F or above would move Yes to 100%, while a lower reading would confirm No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance