Austin Daily Temperature High — contract UHAUS_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Traders assign negligible probability to Austin hitting exactly 96°F on July 26, reflecting the inherent rarity of a precise temperature outcome and recent forecasts that point toward highs reaching 100°F, making 96 an unlikely middle ground.
📊 Base rate: Over the past 30 years, July 26 daily high temperatures in Austin have varied widely (mid-80s to 100s); exactly 96°F has occurred in less than 1% of those days, anchoring the prior far below 10%.
What's driving it
- • A July 6 forecast that Austin could hit 100°F that week (Austin American-Statesman, Jul 6) pushes expectations toward triple-digit highs, reducing the probability of an exact reading like 96°F.
- • A June 9 article noting that Austin temperatures are not breaking records but feel hotter (Austin American-Statesman, Jun 9) suggests the actual highs are settling in a typical summer range, not near an unusual exact figure.
- • A May 14 piece on summer-like heat creeping into Central Texas (Austin American-Statesman, May 14) indicates a gradual warming trend, but without any signal that a specific day would land on a precise middle value.
The case for YES
- • A heat dome similar to the one that pushed temperatures to mid-90s in March (Austin American-Statesman, Mar 21) could re-form and stall over Austin, locking the high near 96°F.
- • If a cold front or cloud cover arrives on July 26, it could cap the high exactly at 96°F, preventing it from rising into the upper 90s or 100s.
- • Historical micro-climate effects in Austin sometimes produce a plateau at 96°F when humidity and wind patterns align, making the exact figure slightly more plausible than other arbitrary thresholds.
The case for NO
- • The 5-month lead time means no deterministic forecast exists for July 26, and the base rate for any exact temperature is extremely low, making 2% odds already a generous overestimate.
- • Recent headlines about potential 100°F readings (Austin American-Statesman, Jul 6) imply that if a heat event materializes, highs will likely overshoot 96°F by several degrees.
- • Typical summer weather patterns in Austin produce a wide daily temperature range, so the chance that the high lands on a round number like 96°F rather than 95, 97, or 98 is statistically negligible.
What to watch
- • Release of 8-14 day outlook by the Climate Prediction Center for the week of July 19-25, due around July 12: a forecast of above-normal temperatures would lower Yes odds further; a forecast of near-normal might keep them stable.
- • Local NWS Austin extended forecast update on July 20-21, providing a specific day-range for July 26: if it shows a high of 96°F, Yes odds would spike; any other number would keep them near zero.
- • Any news of a cold front or tropical moisture affecting Texas around July 26 in the week prior: such an event would likely suppress highs below 96°F, reducing Yes odds even more.
Sources
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance