Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Los Angeles will not hit 78°F on July 26, 2026, despite recent record-breaking heat events, because the contract targets a specific date far in the future where seasonal norms and forecast uncertainty dominate over short-term extremes.
📊 Base rate: Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that the average daily high in Los Angeles on July 26 is around 84°F, with a standard deviation of about 5°F, meaning a high of exactly 78°F is roughly 1.2 standard deviations below the mean and occurs in fewer than 5% of years.
What's driving it
- • The market heavily discounts the relevance of the March 2026 heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) because it occurred months before the contract date and does not directly predict a specific July temperature.
- • No recent headlines or forecasts specifically address the weather for July 26, 2026, leaving the odds anchored by long-term climate averages rather than near-term catalysts.
- • The 98% No price reflects the low historical probability of a July high as low as 78°F in Los Angeles, where summer temperatures typically range from the mid-80s to low 90s.
The case for YES
- • If a strong, persistent marine layer or unusual June gloom pattern extends into late July, it could suppress daytime highs to near 78°F, as seen in some cooler summers.
- • A sudden shift in large-scale atmospheric patterns, such as a deep trough off the California coast, could bring unseasonably cool air and overcast skies on the specific date.
The case for NO
- • Los Angeles’s typical July climate, with high pressure and clear skies, makes a high of 78°F about 1-2 standard deviations below the mean, an outcome that occurs in only about 2-5% of years historically.
- • The recent trend of warming ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) and record heat events (The Guardian, Feb 27) suggest a bias toward warmer, not cooler, conditions.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 medium-range weather forecasts (e.g., from the Climate Prediction Center) that predict a strong ridge or trough over Southern California would move odds toward No or Yes, respectively.
- • Any announcement of an unusually persistent marine layer or El Niño/La Niña transition in summer 2026 that could alter typical July temperature patterns.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance