Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite historic heatwaves earlier in 2026, the market heavily favors a sub-80°F high on July 25 at LAX, reflecting the persistent marine layer from record-warm coastal waters and the absence of recent heat alerts.
📊 Base rate: At Los Angeles International Airport, the historical probability of a daily high temperature reaching 80°F on July 25 is approximately 5-10%, making the current 2% Yes odds slightly below the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • Record-warm ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) have strengthened the marine layer, keeping coastal LA cool and suppressing high temperatures.
- • No heat advisories or extreme temperature headlines have been reported for late July 2026, suggesting the day passed without notable heat.
- • The historic March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) was an isolated event and does not indicate a pattern for summer temperatures.
The case for YES
- • A brief Santa Ana wind event could override the marine layer and push temperatures above 80°F even at the cooler LAX station.
- • The earlier record-breaking heatwaves in March and February demonstrate that extreme temperatures can occur outside typical patterns.
- • Record-warm ocean water could, if the marine layer breaks, contribute to higher air temperatures due to increased moisture and heat content.
The case for NO
- • The persistent marine layer, reinforced by record-warm ocean temperatures (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), typically keeps LAX highs in the mid-70s during late July.
- • Historical data shows that only about 5-10% of July 25 days at LAX reach 80°F, and the current odds reflect an even lower probability.
- • No recent headlines indicate any heat event for July 25, consistent with a normal, cool summer day.
What to watch
- • Official National Weather Service temperature data for July 25, 2026, expected to be released shortly, will confirm the actual high; likely direction: towards 0% Yes if below 80°F, or towards 100% Yes if above.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance