Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_77
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 97% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 97% right now.
The market is almost certain to resolve Yes because 77°F is well below the climatological average high for Los Angeles in late July, making the threshold a near-guarantee; the recent heat-wave headlines are largely irrelevant to this specific date’s probability.
📊 Base rate: Based on NOAA's 1991-2020 climate normals, the daily high temperature in Los Angeles on July 25 exceeds 77°F in approximately 98% of years.
What's driving it
- • Climatological baseline: the long-term average high on July 25 in Los Angeles is about 84°F (National Weather Service), so 77°F is a very low bar—this is the primary reason for the 97% odds.
- • Recent headlines about record-breaking March heat (The Guardian, Mar 19) and persistent ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may marginally reinforce confidence in warm conditions, but they do not directly alter the probability for this specific date.
- • The market has been stable at 97% since listing, indicating that traders have anchored on the historical near-certainty of reaching 77°F rather than on any short-term weather forecast.
The case for YES
- • Historical data show that the high temperature on July 25 in Los Angeles has reached or exceeded 77°F in over 95% of years, making failure to do so a rare event.
- • Even in years without extreme heat, the typical summer pattern of warm, dry weather ensures that the high is almost always above 77°F by late July.
- • The current neutral ENSO conditions and the background warming trend (implied by ocean heat records, Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) provide no reason to expect a significant cold anomaly.
The case for NO
- • A persistent marine layer or unusual June gloom could suppress daytime heating, though such conditions are uncommon in late July and typically keep highs in the low 70s at worst.
- • A cold front or deep trough from the Pacific could bring overcast skies and rain, but these are rare in July and would require a major deviation from forecast models.
- • The 3% No odds already price in the small chance of a freak cool-down, and no specific catalyst for such an event is evident in the provided headlines.
What to watch
- • Daily operational weather forecasts beginning around July 20–22 will provide the most direct evidence; if they consistently show a high below 77°F, the No side could spike, but that is extremely unlikely.
- • Any unexpected shift in ensemble guidance toward a cooler pattern (e.g., a strong marine layer event) in the final 72 hours would slightly increase No odds.
- • The actual observed high on July 25 will determine the resolution; no other scheduled events are likely to move the market before then.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance