Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, because recent extreme heat events and record-breaking ocean temperatures make a cooler, near-normal day unlikely, but the precise threshold is so narrow that even a typical summer day would likely exceed it.
📊 Base rate: For Los Angeles in late July, the historical average daily high is about 84°F, and the probability of a high exactly at 78°F is extremely low (well under 5%) due to natural temperature variability.
What's driving it
- • A historic March 2026 heatwave shattered high-temperature records across the US West (The Guardian, Mar 19), signaling a hotter-than-normal year that reduces the chance of a mild 78°F day.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which typically suppresses coastal cooling and raises baseline temperatures in Los Angeles.
- • Los Angeles experienced record high temperatures in late February 2026 just after a winter storm (The Guardian, Feb 27), indicating persistent warm anomalies that make a cool 78°F high less plausible.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or June gloom pattern could keep temperatures suppressed well below seasonal averages, potentially hitting exactly 78°F if clouds linger into the afternoon.
- • The contract's precise threshold (exactly 78°F) is a narrow target; even a typical summer day with a high near 84°F could miss it, but a cooler-than-expected day from unusual weather patterns could land right on 78°F.
The case for NO
- • The historical base rate for a high of exactly 78°F in late July in Los Angeles is extremely low, as daily highs typically range from the low 80s to mid-90s, making an exact match statistically improbable.
- • The string of record-breaking heat events in 2026, including the March heatwave and persistent ocean heat, suggests a warmer-than-average summer, pushing the likely high well above 78°F.
- • Even a moderately warm day (e.g., 82°F) would resolve No, and the odds reflect that the vast majority of outcomes fall above the threshold.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 NOAA or NWS extended forecasts for Southern California: if they predict a strong marine layer or cooler-than-normal pattern, Yes odds could rise; if they predict a heat dome or above-normal temperatures, No odds would strengthen.
- • Any new heatwave warnings or record-breaking temperature reports in the week before July 26 would further reduce the already low Yes probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance