Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_88
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of Los Angeles hitting 88°F on July 26, 2026, despite recent record-breaking heat events, because the contract date is in deep summer when such a high is climatologically routine and the question likely hinges on a specific technical definition or data source that makes a miss far more probable.
📊 Base rate: Based on NOAA historical data for downtown Los Angeles (USC station), the daily high on July 26 has reached or exceeded 88°F in roughly 70-75% of years since 1945, so the current 2% odds are extremely low relative to the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst for the current 2% odds is evident from recent headlines; the market may be reacting to a specific contract rule or data source that sets an unusually high bar for 'high temperature' (e.g., a specific airport station or a calibrated sensor).
- • Recent record-breaking heat events in March and February 2026 (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17; The Guardian, Feb 27) have not shifted the odds upward, suggesting traders view those as seasonal anomalies irrelevant to a late-July outcome.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which could support coastal moderation but does not appear to be moving this contract's odds.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) may have introduced a new official temperature reporting method that traders believe will produce lower readings than historical norms.
The case for YES
- • Historical base rates strongly favor a high of 88°F or above on July 26 in Los Angeles, with roughly 70-75% of past years hitting that mark.
- • The region has experienced multiple record-breaking heat events in 2026 (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17), indicating a warm trend that could persist into summer.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may contribute to warmer land temperatures by reducing marine-layer cooling.
The case for NO
- • The market is heavily skewed to No at 98%, suggesting informed traders believe the contract's specific definition (e.g., a particular weather station, time window, or rounding rule) makes 88°F unlikely.
- • Recent record heat events occurred in March and February (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17), which are climatologically distinct from July and may not predict summer conditions.
- • No headline since late May 2026 indicates an imminent heat wave for late July, and the market has not reacted to any recent weather forecasts.
What to watch
- • Release of the official NOAA 8-14 day temperature outlook for July 26 around July 12-14, 2026: if it forecasts above-normal temperatures, odds could rise; if normal or below, odds stay low.
- • Any mid-July heat wave forecast for Southern California from the National Weather Service: a specific warning of temperatures near 88°F would likely increase Yes odds.
- • Publication of the contract's final settlement rules or data source clarification by the venue: if it confirms a low-threshold station (e.g., downtown LA), Yes odds could jump; if a high-threshold station (e.g., LAX airport), No odds strengthen.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance