Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_87
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
Historic spring heatwaves raised expectations for a hot summer, but the market gives only a 3% chance that LA hits 87°F on July 26, suggesting traders see those earlier extremes as anomalies for this specific date.
📊 Base rate: Omitted as no defensible real-world base rate for LA hitting exactly 87°F on July 26 is available from the provided sources or common knowledge without inventing.
What's driving it
- • Record-breaking March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and February heat records (The Guardian, Feb 27) might have temporarily shifted sentiment toward hotter outcomes, but the persistent low odds indicate these events are not seen as reliable predictors for this specific day.
- • The ocean off California continuing to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) typically reinforces the marine layer, which caps coastal daytime highs and may be driving the 97% No price.
- • No specific forecast or headline about July 26 itself has emerged, so the market is driven by climatological norms and the absence of extreme heat warnings.
The case for YES
- • If a Santa Ana wind event or a heat dome materializes on July 26, temperatures can spike above 87°F, as seen in the March heatwave that shattered records (The Guardian, Mar 19).
- • The ongoing ocean heat record (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) provides a warmer baseline that could lift daily highs above seasonal averages.
- • An unexpected late-day temperature surge or measurement error could push the official high over 87°F.
The case for NO
- • Climatologically, late July in Los Angeles is heavily influenced by the marine layer, keeping highs typically in the 70s to low 80s, making 87°F a difficult threshold.
- • The record-breaking spring heat (USA Today, Mar 17) was an outlier and does not imply abnormal heat in July; temperatures have likely reverted to seasonal norms.
- • No recent advisory or forecast indicates extreme heat for this date, and the market overwhelmingly (97%) expects a below-threshold high.
What to watch
- • The resolution of this contract today (July 26, 2026) is the only catalyst; the official high temperature reading will settle the market, with any unexpected spike above 87°F moving odds sharply up before resolution.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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