Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_86
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of 86°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, despite a series of record-breaking heat events in the region earlier in the year, suggesting traders see those extremes as anomalies rather than a new normal for that specific late-July date.
📊 Base rate: Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that the average daily high in Los Angeles on July 26 is around 84°F, with a standard deviation of about 4°F, meaning 86°F is roughly one-half standard deviation above the mean and occurs in about 30% of years.
What's driving it
- • The market odds of 4% Yes reflect a strong baseline expectation that July 26 will not be an extreme outlier, consistent with typical summer temperatures in LA (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28).
- • A historic March heatwave that shattered records across the US West (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17) may have been dismissed by traders as an early-season anomaly rather than a predictor of late-July highs.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could be seen as a long-term warming signal, but the market's low Yes odds suggest traders do not view this as sufficient to push a specific July day above 86°F.
- • No clear recent headline directly addresses the odds for this specific contract, so the 4% level likely reflects a combination of base-rate reasoning and the absence of a near-term heatwave forecast for late July.
The case for YES
- • Record-breaking heat events in March and February 2026 (The Guardian, Mar 19; The Guardian, Feb 27) demonstrate that extreme temperatures are occurring earlier and more intensely, raising the possibility that the trend continues into late July.
- • The ocean off California has been breaking heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which can fuel hotter land temperatures by reducing the marine layer and increasing onshore warming.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) signals growing institutional concern about heat-related risks, which may correlate with a higher likelihood of extreme temperature days.
The case for NO
- • The historical base rate for a high of 86°F on July 26 in Los Angeles is around 30%, meaning the current 96% No odds imply a strong market belief that this year will be cooler than average, not warmer.
- • The March heatwave was described as 'unprecedented' and 'dangerous' (The New York Times, Mar 16), but such early-season extremes often do not repeat in the same year, as they are driven by specific atmospheric patterns that are unlikely to persist.
- • No recent forecast or advisory warns of a heatwave specifically targeting late July 2026, and the market appears to be pricing in a return to more typical summer conditions after the early-year anomalies.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 extended-range forecasts from the National Weather Service (e.g., a 8-14 day outlook around July 12-18) would likely move odds toward Yes if they predict above-normal temperatures for Southern California.
- • A heatwave or record high in the weeks leading up to July 26 (e.g., around July 15-20) would increase the probability of a Yes resolution by showing a persistent warm pattern.
- • Any official heat advisory or excessive heat watch issued by the National Weather Service for Los Angeles County on or around July 24-25 would strongly shift odds toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance