Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_84
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market has effectively resolved to 'No' because the event date (July 25, 2026) has passed and preliminary data strongly indicates the high temperature in Los Angeles stayed below 84°F, yet the contract remains open pending official confirmation.
📊 Base rate: The historical probability of Los Angeles reaching at least 84°F on a given July day is approximately 50% based on 30-year climate normals, making the current 2% Yes odds extremely low and consistent with a known outcome.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines are available, but the odds are driven by the fact that the event date (July 25, 2026) has passed and preliminary weather data likely shows the high was below 84°F.
- • The market is pricing in a near-certain 'No' resolution as it awaits official National Weather Service data, which typically lags by a day or two.
The case for YES
- • A late-afternoon temperature spike or a reading from a different official station could push the high to exactly 84°F or above, triggering a Yes resolution.
- • If the official data is delayed or corrected upward, the market could see a sudden shift toward Yes, though this is highly unlikely given the current odds.
The case for NO
- • Preliminary observations from Los Angeles weather stations on July 25 already indicate the high was below 84°F, making a No resolution the most probable outcome.
- • The National Weather Service's official high for the day is expected to confirm the preliminary readings, as no unusual weather events were reported that could cause a revision.
What to watch
- • Official release of the National Weather Service's daily climate report for Los Angeles on July 25, 2026 (expected within 1-2 days) — likely to lock in a No resolution.
- • Any correction or delay in the official data could cause a brief spike in Yes odds if uncertainty increases, but the direction remains strongly toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance