Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_79
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Los Angeles will not hit 79°F on July 25, 2026, reflecting strong climatological and seasonal norms rather than any recent news or forecast anomaly.
📊 Base rate: Based on historical weather data for Los Angeles in late July, the daily high exceeds 79°F roughly 70-80% of the time, making the current 2% Yes odds extremely low relative to the base rate.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds are driven by persistent seasonal patterns and the specific date's historical record, not by any headline.
The case for YES
- • A sudden heatwave or Santa Ana wind event could push temperatures above 79°F, as such events have occurred in late July historically.
- • If a strong high-pressure system settles over Southern California, it could break the current cool pattern and drive the high above the threshold.
The case for NO
- • The date is in late July, when Los Angeles often experiences marine layer clouds and onshore flow that keep temperatures moderate, typically below 79°F.
- • Current odds reflect a strong consensus among traders that the forecast models consistently show highs in the low-to-mid 70s for that day, with no signs of a warming trend.
What to watch
- • Release of the 7-day forecast for July 25 around July 18-20, 2026: if it shows highs above 79°F, Yes odds would spike; if below, No odds would strengthen.
- • Any National Weather Service heat advisory or excessive heat watch issued for Los Angeles County in the week prior would push Yes odds higher.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance