Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market reflects near-certainty that Los Angeles will not hit 78°F on the given July date, likely due to typical summer marine-layer cloud cover and coastal cooling that suppress high temperatures far below that threshold.
📊 Base rate: For downtown Los Angeles (USC reporting station) in late July, daily highs average around 84°F, but exceed 78°F on roughly 95% of days, so the current 2% Yes odds are far below the historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines were found; the extreme odds likely reflect persistent local climatology that coastal Los Angeles rarely sees highs below 78°F in late July, making a Yes resolution a major cold outlier.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or overcast sky can keep temperatures in the mid-70s, as often occurs after a heatwave breaks or during persistent June Gloom-like conditions.
- • If a tropical storm or monsoon moisture deepens cloud cover and rain, it could suppress the high to 78°F or lower.
The case for NO
- • July 26 falls in the hottest part of summer, when typical highs at Los Angeles (downtown) are near or above 85°F.
- • Santa Ana winds or a strong offshore flow would raise temperatures well above 78°F, as often occurs in summer under high-pressure ridges.
- • The 98% No price implies the market sees no credible forecast or weather pattern that would keep the high that low.
What to watch
- • Upcoming NWS forecast updates for Los Angeles County (July 23-25) will show modeled high temperatures; if models consistently predict below 78°F, Yes odds could rise sharply.
- • A shift toward an onshore flow or marine layer deepening (visible in satellite/radar a day or two before) would increase Yes probability; a shift toward offshore flow would affirm No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance