Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 43% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 43% right now.
The market is pricing a slightly below-even chance that Los Angeles hits 78°F on July 26, a threshold that is often reached but not guaranteed, with the marine layer being a key local factor that can keep temperatures cooler.
What's driving it
- • The odds tilt toward No, indicating that traders are factoring in the possibility of marine layer influence, which is common in July and can suppress temperatures near the coast.
- • No recent headlines suggest any unusual weather pattern for Los Angeles, so the market is relying on climatology and typical summer conditions.
The case for YES
- • 78°F is a modest threshold; the average high in Los Angeles in late July is well above that, so a typical day would easily exceed it.
- • If the marine layer is weak or absent, temperatures can rise quickly and affect coastal areas, pushing the high above 78°F.
- • Weather models may show a high probability of reaching 78°F based on synoptic conditions.
The case for NO
- • The marine layer can keep temperatures in the 70s near the coast, and Los Angeles's official weather station is at the coast (LAX), so it often records cooler temperatures than inland.
- • If there is any cloud cover or onshore flow, the high may stay below 78°F.
- • Historical data shows that not every day in late July reaches 78°F; there is a non-trivial chance of a cooler day.
What to watch
- • Throughout the day on July 26, actual temperature readings from weather stations will provide real-time data, potentially moving the odds toward the eventual outcome.
- • The official high temperature report from the National Weather Service, expected later today, will resolve the market.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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Yes ≈ 26% chance