Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market overwhelmingly expects the LA daily high on July 26, 2026, to stay below 81°F, but no recent headlines explain this outlier compared to historical norms.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines or market-moving events are available to explain the current odds.
- • The odds are likely driven by proprietary weather models or long-range forecasts, but no specific sources are cited.
The case for YES
- • A late-breaking heatwave could push temperatures above 81°F, as is common for LA in July.
- • Historical weather patterns suggest that temperatures above 81°F are common in LA in late July, but the market is currently ignoring this.
The case for NO
- • The 97% odds indicate strong market consensus based on weather forecasts that predict a cooler day.
- • Even without headlines, the extreme skew suggests that reliable models are showing a high chance of sub-81°F temperatures.
What to watch
- • The release of the 7-day forecast around July 19 could shift odds if it shows a significant change.
- • The 15-day outlook from NOAA, typically updated around July 11, could provide an early indication.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance