Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
The market heavily favors No at 94%, reflecting the extreme rarity of Los Angeles hitting 80°F in late July, but the absence of recent headlines means the odds are driven purely by climatological norms rather than any short-term weather event.
📊 Base rate: Historical data shows that Los Angeles (downtown) has reached 80°F on July 26 only about 5-10% of the time over the past several decades, making the current 6% Yes odds consistent with that base rate.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines were found — no clear catalyst recently; the odds are anchored by long-term climate averages for late July in Los Angeles, which typically sees highs in the mid-70s°F.
- • The market's 94% No probability reflects the strong historical tendency for marine layer clouds and coastal cooling to keep downtown LA temperatures below 80°F in July.
The case for YES
- • A strong Santa Ana wind event or a break in the marine layer could push inland heat to the coast, potentially spiking downtown temperatures above 80°F.
- • If a high-pressure ridge sets up over the Southwest, it could suppress the usual coastal fog and allow temperatures to climb into the low 80s.
The case for NO
- • The persistent marine layer and onshore flow in late July typically keep downtown Los Angeles highs in the mid-70s, making 80°F a rare occurrence.
- • Climate records show that July 26 has a low historical probability of reaching 80°F, and no recent weather pattern suggests an anomaly.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service forecast update on July 25-26 predicting a high above 80°F would sharply increase Yes odds.
- • Any report of a heat advisory or Santa Ana wind warning for the Los Angeles basin on July 26 would push Yes odds higher.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance