Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certain miss of 81°F for Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, a stark contrast to typical July averages near 84°F, indicating either a specific forecasted cool pattern or a misinterpretation of the contract's threshold.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the current odds of 3% Yes versus 97% No represent a strong market consensus that the daily high will stay below 81°F.
The case for YES
- • Historical average high temperatures for Los Angeles in late July are around 84°F, suggesting that an 81°F threshold is often exceeded.
- • The extremely low 3% Yes probability may be an overreaction to short-term weather models or a mispricing.
The case for NO
- • The 97% No probability indicates confidence in a cooler outcome, likely due to persistent marine layer or coastal fog that can suppress temperatures.
- • If the contract is for a specific coastal location (e.g., LAX), the marine influence is stronger, making 81°F less likely.
What to watch
- • Short-term weather forecasts (e.g., NWS model runs) 3–5 days before July 26; if they predict temperatures above 81°F, Yes odds would rise.
- • Any heatwave advisory or record-breaking temperature event in Southern California would increase Yes probability.
- • Absence of such forecasts would likely keep No odds high.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance