Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_82
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market heavily discounts the chance of Los Angeles hitting 82°F on July 26, reflecting a strong consensus that typical summer conditions will prevail.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds have remained stable at 97% No, indicating sustained belief that the temperature will stay below 82°F.
The case for YES
- • A sudden heatwave or Santa Ana wind event could push temperatures above 82°F.
- • If a strong high-pressure system settles over the region, it could break the marine layer and allow for higher temperatures.
The case for NO
- • Typical marine layer and coastal influence keep Los Angeles temperatures moderate in late July, often below 82°F.
- • Historical data for the location shows that highs above 82°F on this date are rare, supporting the low probability.
What to watch
- • Release of short-term weather forecasts from the National Weather Service within 3-5 days of July 26 could shift odds; a forecast above 82°F would increase Yes, while below would reinforce No.
- • Any unexpected shift in large-scale weather patterns, such as a trough moving in, could lower the chance of high temperatures and further decrease Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance