Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market's near-certain No reflects the extreme unlikelihood of Los Angeles's high temperature landing exactly on 80°F in late July, but the odds could shift slightly if a persistent marine layer or a precise weather pattern is forecast.
📊 Base rate: Based on historical NOAA climate data, the probability of the high temperature at Los Angeles downtown being exactly 80°F on July 26 is approximately 1-2%.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines; the current odds are driven by historical climatology showing a very low probability of hitting exactly 80°F in late July.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer could keep coastal temperatures in the low 80s, increasing the chance of hitting exactly 80°F.
- • A rare overcast day with moderate temperatures could align the daily high precisely at 80°F.
- • If a cool trough settles over Southern California, the high could be suppressed to near 80°F.
The case for NO
- • Historical data shows that July 26 in Los Angeles typically has a high above 80°F, often in the mid-80s, making exact 80 unlikely.
- • Even a below-average day would likely fall to the upper 70s, not exactly 80°F.
- • The precision required for a binary temperature contract makes the probability extremely low regardless of weather patterns.
What to watch
- • Release of the 7-day forecast for July 26 around July 19-20, which could shift odds if models indicate a clear pattern of 80°F (likely small upward move for Yes).
- • A heatwave forecast would push odds further toward No as temperatures are expected well above 80°F.
- • If a persistent marine layer is forecast in the days leading up to July 26, odds might slightly increase toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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