Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_88
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market overwhelmingly expects the daily high to stay below 88°F, consistent with historical climate patterns for late July in Los Angeles, with no recent news to alter that view.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds are anchored by the historical low probability of reaching 88°F on July 26.
- • The absence of any heatwave or weather alerts has kept the odds heavily skewed toward No.
The case for YES
- • A sudden and unexpected heatwave could push temperatures above 88°F, though no such event is currently forecast.
- • If the National Weather Service issues a heat advisory for the area, it could increase the likelihood of Yes.
The case for NO
- • Historical data shows that July 26 highs in Los Angeles rarely exceed 88°F, with average highs around 84°F.
- • Current weather conditions and forecasts likely indicate a typical summer day, well below the threshold.
What to watch
- • The official high temperature reading for July 26, expected later today, will resolve the contract; any reading above 88°F would trigger Yes.
- • Midday temperature updates from weather stations could shift odds if they show an unexpected rise.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance