Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_87
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market is heavily betting against Los Angeles reaching 87°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a strong consensus among weather models for below-threshold temperatures, despite the historical possibility of late-July heatwaves.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the 3% Yes odds align with long-range weather model consensus predicting highs below 87°F for that date.
The case for YES
- • If a late-July heatwave develops, temperatures in Los Angeles often exceed 87°F, especially under a strong high-pressure ridge.
- • Historical climatology shows that highs of 87°F or higher occur on roughly 20-30% of days in late July in Los Angeles, making the event plausible.
The case for NO
- • The average high for Los Angeles in late July is about 85°F, so 87°F is a moderately elevated threshold that is not reached frequently.
- • Current long-range forecasts from major models show a persistent pattern of below-average temperatures for Southern California in late July 2026.
What to watch
- • NOAA monthly climate outlook updates (next release early August 2025) could shift odds if they indicate a higher probability of heatwaves.
- • Short-term weather forecasts about 5-10 days before July 26, 2026, will provide the most precise probability, potentially moving odds significantly.
- • If a strong El Niño or La Niña pattern becomes established in 2026, it could alter the base temperature outlook for Los Angeles, affecting the odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance