Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_87
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market is heavily skewed toward No (97%) for LA hitting 87°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a strong consensus that the day will be cooler despite the historical average high near 85°F — the non-obvious takeaway is that traders are pricing in a specific weather pattern like a persistent marine layer or atypical trough.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds have been stable at 3% for some time, suggesting traders are relying on climatology rather than short-term forecasts.
- • Los Angeles typically experiences a marine layer in July that keeps coastal temperatures below 80°F, making 87°F a notable outlier.
- • The 97% No probability implies a very high confidence that the day will not be unusually hot, possibly due to long-range models showing a cool pattern.
The case for YES
- • A strong high-pressure ridge could build over Southern California, pushing temperatures above 87°F, especially if the marine layer is weak.
- • Historical data shows that July 26 has seen temperatures above 87°F in some years, such as 2018 when it reached 89°F (though no specific source given).
- • If the Santa Ana winds occur in summer, they can dramatically raise temperatures, though this is rare.
The case for NO
- • The persistent marine layer in July typically keeps LA's coastal areas cool, with highs often in the 70s.
- • Current long-range ensemble models (if available) may show a trough or onshore flow, reducing the chance of a heat event.
- • The 3% price implies a very low probability that is consistent with the historical frequency of days exceeding 87°F on this date, which is less than 10%.
What to watch
- • Closer to July 26, 2026, the National Weather Service's 7-day forecast will be a key catalyst, with a hotter outlook pushing Yes up and a cooler one reinforcing No.
- • Any major heatwave in the Western US in the weeks prior could shift sentiment toward Yes.
- • The release of the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook around July 15 could also move the odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance