Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_88
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Los Angeles will not reach 88°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a strong climatological bias against that threshold for that date rather than any recent news or event.
📊 Base rate: Historical weather data for Los Angeles shows that the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, with temperatures reaching 88°F or above only about 10-15% of years, making the current 2% odds significantly lower than the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently — the odds are stable and driven by long-term climate patterns and seasonal norms, not by any specific headline.
The case for YES
- • A strong Santa Ana wind event or a heatwave could push temperatures above the historical average, making 88°F reachable.
- • Climate change is gradually increasing average temperatures, which could make extreme highs more common even on typical dates.
The case for NO
- • Climatological records show that July 26 in Los Angeles rarely exceeds 88°F, with the historical probability around 10-15%, making the current 98% No odds consistent with past data.
- • No recent weather forecasts or unusual patterns suggest a deviation from the typical summer marine layer and coastal moderation that keeps temperatures moderate.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service heat advisory issued for the Los Angeles area in the days before July 26 would increase Yes odds.
- • A forecast of a strong high-pressure system settling over Southern California a week out would raise Yes probability.
- • Any report of a marine layer or onshore flow strengthening would push odds further toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance