San Francisco Daily Temperature High — contract UHSFO_072526_77
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The market sees a 96% chance that San Francisco's daily high on July 26, 2026, will not reach 77°F, reflecting a strong consensus that the city's typical summer marine layer and coastal fog will keep temperatures below that threshold, despite a record-breaking March heat wave that has since ended.
📊 Base rate: San Francisco's average daily high on July 26 is around 68°F, with historical records showing that highs reach 77°F or above on only about 10-15% of July days, based on NOAA climate normals.
What's driving it
- • The odds are heavily anchored by San Francisco's climatological norm — July highs average in the mid-60s to low 70s — making 77°F a relatively high bar (CBS News, Mar 11).
- • A rare March heat wave set multiple Bay Area temperature records (NBC Bay Area, Mar 17), but that event ended weeks ago and has no direct bearing on summer conditions (San Francisco Chronicle, Mar 23).
- • No recent headlines indicate any unusual heat wave or weather pattern forecast for late July, so the market is pricing based on historical probabilities rather than a specific upcoming event.
The case for YES
- • If a strong offshore wind (Diablo wind) or a high-pressure ridge sets up over the Bay Area in late July, it could push temperatures well above normal, as seen in past summer heat events.
- • Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme heat days in California, and a record-breaking March heat wave shows the region is capable of anomalous warmth (CBS News, Mar 18).
- • The 4% odds imply a roughly 1-in-25 chance, which is not implausible given that San Francisco has hit 77°F or higher on some July days in recent years (e.g., 2022, 2023).
The case for NO
- • San Francisco's coastal location and marine layer typically keep summer highs in the 60s to low 70s, making 77°F a rare event — historically occurring on fewer than 15% of July days.
- • The March heat wave was a spring anomaly and does not predict summer conditions; in fact, it ended with cooler temperatures returning (San Francisco Chronicle, Mar 23).
- • No current forecast or weather advisory suggests a heat wave for late July, and the market's 96% No price reflects a strong consensus that the typical summer pattern will hold.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service heat advisory or forecast of temperatures above 75°F for San Francisco in the week before July 26 would likely shift odds toward Yes (direction: Yes).
- • A strong El Niño or persistent high-pressure ridge developing over the Pacific Northwest in late July could increase the chance of offshore flow and warmer temperatures (direction: Yes).
- • If the week leading up to July 26 sees typical foggy and cool conditions, the odds for No could strengthen further, though they are already near the ceiling (direction: No).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance