Las Vegas Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAS_072526_112
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Las Vegas will hit 112°F on July 25, 2026, driven by a historic March heatwave that shattered records across the West and a forecast of triple-digit temperatures returning in May, but the specific 112°F threshold is an extreme outlier even for Las Vegas in late July.
📊 Base rate: Las Vegas's average daily high on July 25 is about 104°F, and the all-time record high for that date is 117°F (set in 2021), so 112°F is roughly 8°F above the historical average but well below the record.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave in the US West shattered high-temperature records (The Guardian, Mar 19), setting a pattern of extreme heat that has continued into summer.
- • Forecasts in early June called for Las Vegas to hit 108°F that weekend (KLAS 8 News Now, Jun 9), showing temperatures already approaching the 112°F threshold weeks before the contract date.
- • More than 100 daily high temperature records were expected through late March (CBS News, Mar 26), indicating a persistent heat anomaly across the region.
- • Triple-digit heat returned to the West in May with dozens of major cities eyeing record-breaking temperatures (FOX Weather, May 11), reinforcing the trend of above-normal heat.
The case for YES
- • The March heatwave set a precedent for extreme early-season temperatures, suggesting the summer could be unusually hot and making 112°F more likely.
- • Las Vegas has already hit 108°F in early June (KLAS 8 News Now, Jun 9), leaving only 4°F to reach the target with six weeks of summer heat remaining.
- • The broader pattern of record-breaking temperatures across the West (CBS News, Mar 25) supports a continued heat dome or persistent high-pressure system that could push Las Vegas to 112°F.
The case for NO
- • 112°F is 8°F above the historical average high for July 25 in Las Vegas, making it a rare event even in a hot summer.
- • The all-time record for that date is 117°F, but reaching 112°F still requires a specific, intense heat event that may not materialize if the current heat pattern weakens.
- • No recent headline specifically forecasts 112°F for Las Vegas on July 25; the available data only shows general heat trends, not a precise prediction for that day.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service heat advisory or excessive heat watch for Las Vegas in the days before July 25 would increase the probability of Yes.
- • A mid-July forecast from a major weather model (e.g., GFS or ECMWF) showing a high-pressure ridge over the Southwest would push odds higher.
- • Any cooling trend or monsoon moisture in the week prior, such as a forecast for thunderstorms or below-normal temperatures, would decrease the probability of Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance