Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_76
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 95% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 95% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty for a relatively low temperature threshold (76°F) in Los Angeles on July 26, a date with a historical average high near 85°F; the extreme heat events earlier in 2026 reinforce the odds but are not the primary driver—climatology alone makes a Yes outcome almost inevitable.
📊 Base rate: Historically, Los Angeles has reached at least 76°F on over 99% of July 26 days in the past 30 years (NOAA climate normals).
What's driving it
- • Historical climatology: Los Angeles' average July high is ~85°F, making 76°F a very low bar (NOAA data).
- • Recent extreme heat events, such as the historic March heat wave that shattered records across the Southwest (The Guardian, Mar 19), and persistent ocean heat off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer-than-average summer, further supporting the high odds.
- • No clear recent catalyst has moved the odds; they have likely been high since the contract opened due to the strong seasonal baseline.
The case for YES
- • The average high temperature in Los Angeles on July 26 is well above 76°F, based on decades of climate data.
- • The March 2026 heat wave and record ocean temperatures indicate a warming trend that makes a cool day even less likely.
- • Even in unusually cool July years, LA's daily high rarely falls below 76°F; the threshold is set very low.
The case for NO
- • A strong marine layer or persistent coastal fog could keep temperatures below 76°F, though such events are rare in late July.
- • If a major cold front or unusual storm system moves through, it could suppress the high, but no such pattern is indicated by current data.
- • The 5% odds reflect a small chance of an extreme outlier event, such as a prolonged overcast from a tropical disturbance, but no headlines support this scenario.
What to watch
- • Release of NOAA's monthly climate outlook for July 2026 (late June) — if it predicts below-normal temperatures, odds could decrease slightly.
- • The 7-day weather forecast for Los Angeles around July 19, 2026 — if it shows a high below 76°F, odds would drop sharply, though this is highly unlikely.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance