Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Los Angeles will not hit 78°F on July 25, 2026, reflecting a strong climatological bias against that temperature threshold in midsummer, not any recent news or event.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles shows that daily high temperatures in late July average around 84°F, with a standard deviation of roughly 5°F, making a high of exactly 78°F — about 1.2 standard deviations below the mean — a relatively rare occurrence, occurring in roughly 10-15% of years.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds are driven purely by climatological norms and the lack of any weather anomaly or forecast shift.
- • The extreme 98% No price reflects a strong consensus that 78°F is an unusually low high for late July in Los Angeles, where typical highs are in the mid-80s.
- • Market participants appear to be relying on long-term climate patterns rather than any short-term weather model updates, as no headlines are available.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or coastal fog could suppress temperatures well below normal, making 78°F achievable.
- • A late-season cold front or unusual troughing over Southern California could drop highs into the upper 70s.
- • If the day sees persistent cloud cover or rain — rare but possible — the high could stay below 80°F.
The case for NO
- • Climatologically, Los Angeles in late July averages highs near 84°F, making 78°F about 6°F below normal and thus unlikely.
- • The region typically experiences stable, sunny weather in midsummer, with high pressure keeping temperatures warm.
- • Even a modestly cool day would likely still reach the low 80s, as the baseline is high and variability is limited.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service forecast update showing a trough or marine layer deepening would push odds toward Yes (date: within 3-5 days of July 25).
- • A heatwave or ridge-building forecast would push odds further toward No (date: within 3-5 days of July 25).
- • Actual observed temperatures on July 24 or early July 25 would provide a strong signal, moving odds sharply toward Yes if below 80°F or No if above 82°F (date: July 24-25).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance