Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite an extreme heat warning for the weekend, the market is overwhelmingly certain Jacksonville's high will stay below 95°F on July 25, likely because the accompanying storms are expected to cap temperatures.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline about extreme heat and storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend (FL Times-Union) suggests both heat and storm activity, which may limit temperature rise.
- • The market has held at 2% Yes for an extended period, reflecting sustained confidence in a sub-95°F high based on weather model consensus.
The case for YES
- • The extreme heat warning indicates a heatwave that could push the high above 95°F, especially if storms are delayed or isolated.
- • Earlier in 2026, Jacksonville experienced record high temperatures (March 27, Jacksonville Journal-Courier), showing the region's capacity for extreme heat.
The case for NO
- • The forecast for storms on July 25 (FL Times-Union) suggests cloud cover and rain, which typically reduce daytime high temperatures.
- • Jacksonville's average July high is around 91°F, so 95°F is a significant threshold that requires unusually strong heat, which the current weather pattern does not support.
What to watch
- • Official National Weather Service high-temperature forecast for July 25, updated on the morning of July 25, would influence the market; a higher forecast would push Yes up, a lower one No up.
- • Actual temperature readings from weather stations in Jacksonville throughout the day on July 25 will resolve the contract; spikes above 95°F would increase Yes odds, while readings below 95°F reinforce No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance