San Francisco Daily Temperature High — contract UHSFO_072526_70
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
The market heavily favors No at 95%, reflecting the extreme rarity of San Francisco hitting 70°F on July 26, a date in the middle of the city's cool summer fog season, with no recent headlines to shift that baseline.
📊 Base rate: San Francisco's average daily high on July 26 is around 64°F, and temperatures reaching 70°F or above on that date occur in roughly 10-15% of years based on historical climate data.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently — the odds are driven by the persistent climatological pattern of cool summer fog in San Francisco, which suppresses high temperatures in late July.
- • The 5% Yes price reflects the low historical probability of a 70°F reading, consistent with long-term weather records for the date.
The case for YES
- • A strong high-pressure ridge could push marine layer clouds away, allowing inland heat to reach the coast and raise temperatures above 70°F.
- • Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme heat events in California, potentially making a 70°F day more likely than historical averages suggest.
The case for NO
- • San Francisco's coastal location and prevailing onshore flow in July typically keep highs in the mid-60s, with fog often persisting through the afternoon.
- • The historical record shows that July 26 rarely exceeds 70°F, and the current odds of 5% align with that low base rate.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service forecast update on July 25-26 predicting a heat advisory or offshore winds would push odds toward Yes.
- • A marine layer forecast showing deep fog or low clouds on July 26 would reinforce the No outcome, likely lowering Yes odds further.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance