Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Los Angeles will not hit 81°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a strong climatological and recent-pattern bias against such a high temperature in late July.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles (downtown) shows that the daily high on July 26 has exceeded 81°F in only about 15% of years since 1944, making the current 2% odds extremely low relative to that base rate.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds have likely settled at 2% due to persistent cool coastal patterns and marine layer influence typical of late July in Los Angeles.
The case for YES
- • A strong Santa Ana wind event or a sudden ridge of high pressure could push temperatures above 81°F, as has occurred in rare outlier years.
- • Urban heat island effects and climate warming trends could make a 81°F high more plausible than historical averages suggest.
The case for NO
- • Los Angeles' coastal location typically keeps July highs moderated by the marine layer, with downtown rarely exceeding 80°F even in summer.
- • The current odds reflect a strong consensus among forecast models and climatology that 81°F is an extreme outlier for this date.
What to watch
- • July 26, 2026 (the contract date): actual temperature reading will resolve the market; any last-minute weather forecast shift above 81°F would spike Yes odds.
- • NWS or ECMWF model updates in the 48 hours prior to July 26: if they show a high above 81°F, Yes odds could rise sharply.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance