Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market assigns an extremely low 2% probability to a daily high of 81°F or cooler in Los Angeles on July 25, implying near-certainty of above-average warmth typical of a late July heatwave, though no recent headline catalysts are available to confirm or challenge this view.
📊 Base rate: In Los Angeles, the average high temperature in late July is around 85°F, and temperatures at or below 81°F occur on only about 10–15% of historical days on July 25, making the current 2% odds notably lower than the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines found; the extreme odds appear to reflect persistent seasonal expectations or prior data, not a new catalyst.
- • The market's 2% Yes price indicates traders see virtually no chance of a cool day, likely extrapolating from typical July heat patterns.
The case for YES
- • A late-season marine layer or overcast skies could suppress the high to 81°F or below, especially if a low-pressure system moves into Southern California.
- • If the official weather station at Los Angeles International Airport (closer to the coast) is used, its highs tend to be 3–5°F cooler than inland stations, increasing the chance of a sub-81°F reading.
The case for NO
- • July 25 is climatologically one of the warmest weeks of the year in Los Angeles, with highs frequently above 85°F and almost never below 81°F outside of unusual rain or fog events.
- • No cooling pattern (e.g., tropical storm, strong onshore flow) is evident, and the Santa Ana wind season, which could raise temperatures even further, is not active in July but general high pressure dominates.
What to watch
- • Official temperature readings from the National Weather Service for July 25, typically released by midday on July 26, will resolve the contract; if the high comes in below 81°F, the price could spike toward 100% Yes, otherwise it will fall to near 0% Yes.
- • Any late-breaking report of a cloud layer or coastal fog on the morning of July 25 would shift probability toward Yes, but no such report is available yet.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance