New York City Daily Temperature High — contract UHLGA_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
Despite a mid-July heat wave that pushed temperatures near 100°F, a subsequent thunderstorm forecast raised the possibility of cooler weather, but the 78°F threshold is so far below the typical July high that the market remains near-certain the contract will resolve Yes.
📊 Base rate: In New York City, the average high temperature on July 25 is about 84°F, and historical data shows that highs reach at least 78°F on roughly 95% of days in late July.
What's driving it
- • A record-breaking heat wave across the U.S. in mid-July (Time Magazine, Jul 14) and a local heat advisory (New York Daily News, Jul 14) reinforced expectations of above-normal temperatures.
- • Syracuse hitting 98°F on July 15 (Democrat and Chronicle, Jul 15) demonstrated the intensity of the heat wave, supporting the likelihood of a high above 78°F in NYC.
- • The forecast of thunderstorms and possible floods on July 20 (New York Daily News, Jul 20) introduced a slight cooling risk, but the odds remained at 98% because the threshold is low.
The case for YES
- • The historical average high for late July in NYC is well above 78°F, making a Yes outcome the statistical norm.
- • The recent heat wave, with temperatures reaching 98°F upstate, suggests warm air was present in the region around the contract date.
- • Even with thunderstorms, the high temperature on a July day in NYC rarely falls below 78°F unless a strong cold front passes.
The case for NO
- • Thunderstorms and heavy rain can suppress daytime highs by several degrees, potentially keeping the temperature below 78°F if clouds and precipitation persist.
- • If a cold front moved through after the heat wave, it could have brought significantly cooler air, as seen in the weekend improvement forecast (New York Daily News, Jul 17).
- • The 2% odds reflect a small but non-zero chance of an unusually cool day, such as from a stalled front or marine layer.
What to watch
- • Official release of the July 25 high temperature from the National Weather Service (likely within 24 hours) would resolve the contract; direction: confirm Yes.
- • Any late-breaking report of a record low high for the date would move odds toward No, but no such report is expected.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance