Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_79
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 79°F in Los Angeles on July 25, 2026, because the region has been locked in a historic heat pattern since March, making a near-average reading unlikely.
📊 Base rate: For Los Angeles in late July, the historical average daily high is around 85°F, so a reading of 79°F is roughly 6°F below normal, a deviation that occurs only about 10–15% of days in a typical year.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave shattered high-temperature records across the US West (The Guardian, Mar 19), setting a pattern of extreme warmth that has persisted into summer.
- • The ocean off California has repeatedly broken heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which tends to keep coastal air temperatures elevated and reduce the chance of a cool outlier.
- • Over 1,500 records were shattered across the Southwest in late March (FOX Weather, Mar 22), indicating a broad, sustained heat dome that makes a below-average day less likely.
The case for YES
- • A marine layer or late-day fog could keep the high below 80°F, as often happens in coastal LA when onshore flow strengthens.
- • If a weak trough or low-pressure system moves through Southern California on July 25, it could suppress temperatures by 5–10°F from the recent hot pattern.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) suggests heightened monitoring, but does not directly affect weather; however, a shift in local conditions could still produce a near-average day.
The case for NO
- • The persistent ocean heat wave off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) provides a warm baseline that makes a cool day less probable.
- • The historic March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and record-shattering Southwest heat (FOX Weather, Mar 22) indicate a regime of above-normal temperatures that is likely to continue into late July.
- • A high of 79°F is well below the climatological average for late July in LA, so achieving it would require a specific, unusual cooling event that is not currently forecast.
What to watch
- • A medium-range weather forecast (around July 20–23) showing a trough or marine layer intrusion would increase the Yes probability.
- • A heatwave warning or excessive heat watch issued for the LA area in the week before July 25 would decrease the Yes probability.
- • Any official climate outlook from NOAA or the NWS indicating a continuation of above-normal temperatures through late July would further lower the Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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Yes ≈ 26% chance