Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 8% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 8% right now.
The market is betting heavily against the Los Angeles daily high being exactly 78°F on July 25, 2026, reflecting both the intrinsic rarity of any specific temperature and a string of extreme heat events earlier in the year that make a moderate reading even less likely.
What's driving it
- • Historic March heatwaves that shattered records across the Southwest (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17) signal a persistently hot pattern, reducing the probability of a cooler, specific temperature like 78°F.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest sustained warmth that suppresses the marine-layer cooling needed for a moderate high.
- • Over 1,500 temperature records were broken in the Southwest during March (FOX Weather, Mar 22), reinforcing the expectation of above-normal heat through summer.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or coastal eddy could develop in late July, pulling cool air inland and capping the high at exactly 78°F, a common occurrence in cooler summers.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened awareness but does not alter the physical possibility of a moderate day amid a hot trend.
The case for NO
- • The extreme heat events in March and April (The Guardian, Mar 19; Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) point to a summer that is likely hotter than average, making a specific moderate temperature like 78°F less probable.
- • The probability of any exact temperature on a given day is inherently low; for LA in late July, the historical chance of exactly 78°F is well under 5%, and the current hot pattern further depresses that chance.
What to watch
- • Release of NOAA's July temperature outlook (early July) – if it predicts a cooler-than-average pattern, Yes odds could rise; if it forecasts continued heat, No odds would strengthen.
- • Any significant marine-layer event or heatwave in the week before July 25 would shift odds toward Yes or No respectively, but no such events are currently forecast in the provided headlines.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance