Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_76
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 91% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 91% right now.
Despite the low 76°F threshold, the 91% Yes odds reflect strong confidence in a typical summer day, yet the market is not at 99% — possibly due to residual uncertainty from LA's coastal marine layer and the unprecedented March heat wave's disruption of normal patterns.
📊 Base rate: On July 26, Los Angeles has historically reached at least 76°F on over 95% of days (based on 1991–2020 climate normals), making the current 91% odds slightly below that baseline — implying a modest degree of doubt.
What's driving it
- • The historic March heat wave that shattered records across the Southwest (The Guardian, Mar 19) likely increased public and trader expectation of a hotter-than-average summer, boosting Yes odds.
- • Ocean temperatures off California have repeatedly broken heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), suggesting persistent warm conditions that could keep coastal Los Angeles warmer than usual.
- • LA County's new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) signals local preparation for extreme heat, but it may also reinforce the narrative of a dangerous summer, indirectly supporting the Yes case.
The case for YES
- • July 26 is late in the summer, and LA's average high on that date is around 84°F — well above 76°F, making a No outcome require a rare cooling event like an unusually strong marine layer.
- • The accumulated heat from the record March heat wave and persistent ocean warmth suggests the summer of 2026 could be even hotter than average, further tilting the odds toward exceeding a relatively low threshold.
- • The market's high odds (91%) already reflect that most forecast models and historical analogues point to a typical summer day reaching 76°F or higher.
The case for NO
- • Coastal Los Angeles can experience a strong marine layer in late July, especially if a trough moves in; such a setup could keep temperatures below 76°F even on a summer day.
- • The unprecedented nature of the March heat wave might indicate a shift in climate patterns that could lead to more extreme but also more variable weather, potentially including cooler-than-normal interludes.
- • Even with a hot summer, the specific day of July 26 could fall on a cool outlier, and the market's 9% No odds capture that residual risk — higher than historical base-rate probability of a sub-76°F day.
What to watch
- • Release of NOAA's July 2026 temperature outlook (typically in late June): a prediction of below-normal temperatures for Southern California would lower the Yes odds; above-normal would push them higher.
- • Any major heat wave or extreme temperature event in Los Angeles during the first three weeks of July would likely increase the Yes odds as traders extrapolate persistence.
- • The mid-July update of the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook: if it forecasts a strong marine layer or trough for the week of July 26, the No odds could rise significantly.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance