San Antonio Daily Temperature High — contract UHSAT_072526_94
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is heavily betting against San Antonio hitting 94°F on July 25, 2026, driven by the recent passage of Tropical Storm Bertha which is forecast to bring cooler temperatures, despite a heatwave earlier in the week.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for San Antonio shows that daily high temperatures in late July typically range from the mid-90s to low 100s, making a 94°F high a common occurrence, but the current odds suggest an unusually cool day is expected.
What's driving it
- • The headline from July 24 states that as Tropical Storm Bertha moves out, South Texas temps will fall on Friday (July 25), directly indicating a cooldown that would keep the high below 94°F (San Antonio Express-News, Jul 24).
- • Earlier headlines from July 22-23 noted temps hitting 100°F, but the shift to Bertha's influence is the dominant recent catalyst, moving odds strongly toward No (San Antonio Express-News, Jul 22-23).
- • The market odds of 2% Yes reflect the market's rapid adjustment to the forecasted cooldown, with no clear countervailing bullish driver in recent news.
The case for YES
- • If Bertha's effects are weaker than forecast or dissipate faster, residual heat from the earlier 100°F days could push the high to 94°F or above.
- • A localized weather pattern, such as a dry line or urban heat island effect, could override the general cooldown and cause a spike in temperature.
- • The historical base rate for late July highs in San Antonio is often above 94°F, so a return to typical conditions would favor Yes.
The case for NO
- • The most recent forecast explicitly states temps will fall on Friday, July 25, directly supporting a high below 94°F (San Antonio Express-News, Jul 24).
- • Tropical Storm Bertha's passage is likely to bring cloud cover and rain, which suppress daytime heating and keep temperatures lower.
- • The market's 98% No odds reflect strong consensus that the cooldown will be sufficient to prevent a 94°F reading.
What to watch
- • July 25, 2026 (event date): Actual temperature readings from San Antonio will resolve the market; if the high is reported below 94°F, odds will collapse to 0% Yes; if above, they will spike to 100% Yes.
- • July 24-25, 2026: Any updated National Weather Service forecast or advisory for San Antonio on July 25 that revises the expected high upward or downward would move odds accordingly.
- • July 25, 2026: Real-time weather station data or local news reports during the day could cause intraday volatility if temperatures approach 94°F.
Sources
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance