Boston Daily Temperature High — contract UHBOS_072526_75
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Boston's high on July 25, 2026, will not hit exactly 75°F, reflecting the climatological rarity of that specific temperature during a historically hot summer, not a forecast of cool weather.
📊 Base rate: For Boston in late July, the daily high has historically been 75°F or lower only about 10–15% of days, based on NWS normals, making the 2% odds consistent with a low base rate for that exact temperature.
What's driving it
- • A historic heat milestone on July 3–4, 2026, when Boston hit 100°F on consecutive days for the first time since 1944 (facebook.com, Jul 3), sets a high baseline for the summer's temperature regime.
- • The Boston Globe's summer outlook on June 11, 2026, warned of a sweltering season with extreme highs, reinforcing expectations that July temperatures will run well above normal.
- • Multiple heat waves in June and July 2026, including a second heat wave starting July 14 (WBUR, Jul 14), have kept daily highs consistently above 90°F, making a 75°F high on July 25 highly improbable.
The case for YES
- • A cold front or prolonged cloud cover could drop the high to 75°F, as seen in some May 2026 forecasts that included isolated severe storms and temperature swings (CBS News, May 20).
- • The specific date of July 25 is late enough in the month that a brief cool-down after a heat wave is possible, though no such pattern is evident in recent headlines.
The case for NO
- • The summer of 2026 has already produced multiple heat waves and record-breaking 100°F days (NBC Boston, Jul 2; facebook.com, Jul 3), indicating a persistent hot pattern that makes a 75°F high on July 25 an outlier.
- • The seasonal outlook from The Boston Globe (Jun 11) predicted a sweltering season with extreme highs, suggesting that temperatures will remain elevated through late July.
- • No recent headline or forecast indicates a significant cooling trend before July 25; instead, the second heat wave in mid-July (WBUR, Jul 14) shows continued warmth.
What to watch
- • A medium-range weather forecast from the National Weather Service around July 20–23, 2026, predicting a cold front or rain, would increase the Yes probability; a continued heat dome forecast would push it lower.
- • Any official heat advisory or excessive heat warning issued for Boston on July 24–25, 2026, would further reduce the already low Yes odds.
- • A sudden shift in the jet stream or a tropical system bringing cloud cover and cooler air to New England around July 25 could raise the Yes probability, though no such event is currently indicated.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance